大卫·科兹：右翼民族主义政权将在美国崛起

从2016年11月8日这天起，一个右翼民族主义政权在美国的崛起已经成为了一种现实的可能性，如果这不在当下发生，那么也将在未来几年内发生。这种政权会操弄民族主义和护国主义议题，蛊惑煽动对少数族群、宗教信徒和其他长期受压迫的群体的恐惧，空口允诺要解决普通群众面临的日益恶化的经济困境，但却将种种问题归咎于外国民众与外来移民，把他们当做替罪羔羊而不是面对真正的“病灶”。

这样的政权如果能巩固统治，总会采取种种手段限制人民长期争取得来的个人权利，在国内外倚重或强化法外的暴力手段。当下由此产生的冲击波对整个美国社会的震荡可能久久不得平息，包括对长期执政的建制派也是如此，从而创造出一种“一切皆有可能的”混沌之感。

其中最大的危险是在11月8日(选举中)浮现的政治联盟。这样的联盟在过去曾经也是支持类似的右翼民族主义政权的基础。它是由传统的右翼建制派突然与工人阶级中相当一部分群体结合而成的。如有了这种依靠上述的议题与允诺而纠合在一起的政治联盟，即使其蛊惑人心的领导人并没有赢得群众中的绝对多数，也可以使右翼的民族主义政权从资本主义的民主制度中“破壳而出”。

推动这种政治轨迹的动因恰恰是经济发展迟滞现象背后约25年来资本主义新自由主义政策的压迫。这种压迫导致了2008年严重的经济危机，并带来迄今为止无解的经济停滞。

当处于社会顶层的少数人在政府当局庇护下从增长乏力的经济收益中获取更多的份额时，经济停滞却愈演愈烈，并正在摧毁所有劳动人民的生活，不分其种族、族群、性别、国籍、性取向偏好。而与此同时，无论建制当局的哪一翼都无法在现有的资本主义新自由主义模式的约束下提供一个真正的解决方案。

这种条件也为今年早些时候唐纳德·特朗普和伯纳德·桑德斯在政治前台的突然崛起提供了土壤。尽管建制派媒体们发动全面行动反对参议员桑德斯，但是自称为社会主义者的桑德斯赢得了包括各族群青年人在内的约1200万工薪阶层的选票。与特朗普的仇视女性、种族主义、反移民和新法西斯主义的立场相比较，那些建制派媒体背后的金主们显然将桑德斯的改良主义纲领视为更为严重的威胁。

支持桑德斯的动力来自处于绝望中的普通群众，他们希望为他们自己、家人、朋友和所在社区所面临的问题寻求解决方案，而桑德斯的左翼方案对他们而言是言之有理的。

上世纪二十和三十年代，整个资本主义世界都笼罩在经济停滞或衰退中，自那个时候起，世界还没有见到过类似于今天这样的经济危机。在那个阶段(1920-1930年代)，(危机)最终(在世界范围内)产生了三种不同的(政治)轨迹。

在德国、意大利、西班牙和日本出现了右翼民族主义政权。在斯堪的纳维亚半岛(北欧)、法国、英国和美国出现了渐进式的改良主义政权。在苏联、东欧、中国、朝鲜和北越，各种形式的国家社会主义模式得以巩固或者出现。

(世界各国)到底是出现反动政权还是改良政权的一个关键因素取决于当地左翼政治力量的作用，他们在(当时的)各国社会中有相当的支持。在德国，激进左翼没有联合社会民主党这样的中间派，这对希特勒看似不可能的崛起发挥了重要作用。而在美国，当时快速增长的激进左翼在好莱坞(娱乐影视行业)中具有相当影响力，并且领导了1930年代产业工人工会发展的热潮，并且选择联合社会中间派力量与支持美国政府的新政。

罗斯福政府最初对如何推行新政并没有明确的方向，但中左联盟在推动罗斯福政府推行经济和社会改良政策中起到了主要作用，从而帮助缓解了尤其是美国南部劳动人民在内的各族群千百万劳动人民的痛苦。由此，右翼民族主义的煽动家们(例如神父考格林Father Coughlin和休伊·皮尔斯·朗Huey Long之流,1930年代美国国内利用种族主义与专制主义煽动右翼民粹的政治人物)从来没能在全国范围内获得政治支持，罗斯福决定性地赢得了每次选举。

考格林神父

二战结束不久，伴随冷战的爆发和美帝国主义在世界各地的军事干预，原新政的政治联盟演变成一个新联盟，致力于推动战后的管制资本主义制度，确保工资增长、低失业率，扩大社会保障体制。该体制也为其他一系列新社会运动提供了有利条件，例如结束对非裔美国人、女性和同性恋者的压迫，阻止对外国干预，限制资本主义扩张导致不断增长的环境成本与工人的健康成本。

对前述社会进步的反动本身是不可避免的，而大量绝望的劳动人民加入了这一反动行列之中，这导致我们今天走到了当前的境地。正如此前历史经验所展示的，这些相同条件也会在美国推动左翼的猛然崛起。其相关证据就是今年二月份爱荷华民主党党团会议上，43%与会者声称自己的政治身份是“社会主义者”。

固然11月8日(大选结果)开启了一个甚至比近35年资本主义新自由主义政策更糟的灾难性前景，但是未来谁胜谁负尚未定论。

在未来几年内，进步社团的一言一行都是至关重要的。我们不能简单地照搬过去的教训，但其中一个教训似乎是告诫我们，要取得些微进步都需要一个包括各种受压迫群体和他们的左翼与中间派的政治代表结成的政治联盟。这将需要认真对待每一个群体的不满和恐惧。

历史留给我们的另一个教训是，鉴于当前美国左翼力量薄弱的现状，为了实现阻止法西斯主义的目的，当务之急是需要建立一个不断增长的左翼运动。就在当下，在建立一场能够体现所有我们共同珍视的价值观的运动之时，其中包括合作、关怀、共享、平等、个人权利、经济保障，以及最后但并非最不重要的环境可持续性;我们必须要开辟一条道路能同时保护受到威胁的所有群体和利益。

为了能真正完全地扞卫这些价值观，这就要求(我们)必须超越资本主义制度。

【附】英文原文

It Can Happen Here

David M.Kotz,December 9,2016

On November 8 the rise of a right wing nationalist regime in the U.S.became a realistic possibility,if not now then in the coming years.Such regimes stress nationalist and patriotic themes,play upon and intensify fear of minority ethnicities and/or religions and/or other long-oppressed groups,promise to resolve festering economic problems of ordinary people,and direct the blame for such problems at a convenient scapegoat such as foreigners or immigrants rather than the real causes.Such regimes,if consolidated,invariably restrict long-established individual rights and introduce,or intensify,the use of extra-legal violent methods at home and abroad.This possibility has sent shock waves throughout U.S.society,including in the long-ruling establishment,creating a sense of chaos in which it seems anything can happen.

The greatest danger is the political coalition that emerged on November 8.Such coalitions have underpinned right wing nationalist regimes in the past.It is made up of traditional right-wing constituencies suddenly combined with significant parts of the working class.Such a political base,held together by the above themes and promises,can enable a right wing nationalist regime to emerge in a democratic capitalist system even without the upstart demagogic leader winning an absolute majority.

The sequence of economic developments in the U.S.that fostered this political trajectory is some 25 years of oppressive neoliberal capitalism,which gave rise to a severe economic crisis in 2008,followed by an unresolved economic stagnation.The current stagnation intensified the process that has been destroying the lives of working people of all races,ethnicities,genders,citizenship-status,and sexual preference,while those at the top have taken an increasing share of the slowly growing pie with the blessings of the establishment.At the same time,none of the wings of the establishment has been able to offer a real solution within the constraints of the still surviving neoliberal form of capitalism.

This situation forms the soil from which both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders suddenly emerged earlier this year.Self-described socialist Senator Bernie Sanders won about 12 million votes mainly from working class people including young people of every ethnicity.This occurred despite an all-out campaign against him by the establishment media,whose backers evidently viewed Sanders'reformist program as a bigger threat than Trump's misogynist,racist,anti-immigrant,neo-fascist pose.Support for Sanders was driven by desperation among ordinary people looking for some solution to the problems faced by themselves,their families,friends,and communities,and his left-wing proposals made sense to them.

The world has not seen an economic crisis similar to that of today since the 1920s-30s,when economic stagnation or decline took hold throughout much of the capitalist world.That period ultimately gave rise to three different trajectories.Right wing nationalist regimes arose in Germany,Italy,Spain,and Japan.Progressive reformist regimes appeared in Scandinavia,France,the U.K.,and the U.S.And various forms of state socialism were consolidated,or newly emerged,in the USSR,Eastern Europe,China,northern Korea,and northern Vietnam.

A key factor in the reactionary and reformist outcomes was the role of left wing political forces,which had significant support in society.In Germany the radical left did not unite with the social democratic center,and this played a major role in Hitler's improbable rise to power.In the U.S.,the rapidly growing radical left,which was influential in Hollywood while leading the trade union upsurge of industrial workers in the 1930s,followed a policy of uniting with centrist forces in society and supporting the reforms of the New Deal.

That center-left coalition played a major role in pulling the Roosevelt Administration,which at first had no clear direction,toward a policy of economic and social reform that relieved the suffering of millions of working people of all ethnicities,particularly in the U.S.South.As a result,right wing nationalist demogogues(Father Coughlin,Huey Long)were never able to get political traction on a national scale,and Roosevelt decisively won every election.

Shortly after World War II the New Deal political coalition evolved into one that gave rise to the postwar system of regulated capitalism with rising wages,low unemployment,and expanding social programs,along with the Cold War and U.S.imperialist military interventions around the world.That system provided favorable conditions for the rise of new movements to end oppression of African Americans,women,and gays and lesbians,to stop foreign interventions,and to reign in the growing environmental costs of capitalist expansion and the health costs to workers.

The inevitable backlash against the above forms of social progress has now joined with the growing desperation of large numbers of working people to bring us to our present pass.As before in history,these same conditions have also produced a suddenly relevant political left in the U.S.Evidence of this appeared in February of this year when 43%of likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants said their political identity was"socialist."While Nov.8 opened a disastrous prospect of a future even worse than the 35 years of neoliberal capitalism,the future is not yet determined.

What the progressive community does in the coming years matters.There is no simple lesson for us from the past,but one that seems to be speaking to us is that progress of any sort requires a broad coalition of various oppressed constituencies and their representations in the political center and left.This will require taking seriously the grievances and fears of every group.

Another lesson is that the aim of preventing fascism may require the building of a growing left-wing movement,given its still weak condition in the U.S.We must find a way to simultaneously defend all of the groups and interests now under threat while building a movement that can ultimately bring about a future embodying all of our common values,including cooperation,caring,sharing,equality,individual rights,economic security,and last but not least environmental sustainability.Fully securing those values will ultimately require passing beyond the capitalist system.

David M.Kotz

Department of Economics,University of Massachusetts Amherst,and author of The Rise and Fall of Neoliberal Capitalism,Harvard University Press,2015.

dmkotz@econs.umass.edu

Helpful comments were received on an earlier draft this short paper from Michael Ash,Wendel Brunner,Barbara Epstein,Gerald Epstein,Don Goldstein,Dorothy Stoneman,and Vamsi Vakulabharanam.

【大卫·科兹(David Kotz) 美国麻省州立大学阿默斯特分校经济系教授  本文由察网摘自红色中囯公众号】